THE BHUTTO EFFECT. It is a stark reminder that world events can dramatically alter the best laid political plans. As Republican and Democrat presidential candidates started what they expected to be another day of glad-handing in Iowa they suddenly had to scramble to issue statements on the death of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Those with a bit more international savvy, like John McCain and Fred Thompson, delayed rushing to the microphones until they could get more facts and details about the assassination and the current situation in Pakistan.

Others, like Mike Huckabee, made his inexperience in international affairs an issue by “apologizing” for the death of Bhutto – somehow implying that the U.S. had something to do with it – and then incorrectly claiming that the Pakistani government had imposed martial law. Coming just a few weeks after he admitted not having read the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and that he didn’t even know about it, Huckabee can ill afford any more foreign policy gaffes.

PAULISTAS ARE WORKING OVERTIME. The Ron Paul headquarters in downtown Des Moines is packed full of 50-75 volunteers working the phones and cranking out a new direct mail piece that claims Mike Huckabee is a “habitual tax hiker.” A second mail piece hits both Huckabee and Mitt Romney with comparisons to their “weak” and “failed” records on abortion, illegal immigration, education choice, and taxes.

Crystal, a Des Moines mother and grandmother, is working at the headquarters and became actively involved in the Paul campaign after hearing him speak a few months ago. It is the first time she has ever been active backed a candidate. After the caucuses, she says she may head to South Carolina to work on the campaign effort there. The Paul campaign has perhaps the largest number of novice political activists on the Republican side of things, but they also appear to be the most passionate and ardent supporters on the ground in Iowa.

WILL RADAR O’REILLY CAUCUS FOR FRED? Ottumwa, Iowa hasn’t received much attention since Radar O’Reilly (played by Gary Burghoff) departed the television cast of “M*A*S*H.” But the Thompson campaign is hoping an endorsement by the Ottumwa Courier will pay big dividends far beyond the city limits of Radar’s hometown. Of course, Radar never revealed his political leanings so he could be caucusing with the Democrats.

IOWA WEATHER FORECAST. Heading into the final weekend of campaigning before next Thursday’s caucuses the weather in Iowa will be cold and snowy, but the longer range forecast may bode well for a good turnout on January 3. The forecast calls for clear skies with a high of 35 and a low of 22 on caucus night. That’s almost balmy by Iowa standards.   

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LABORS OF LOVE? Candidates, political operatives, pundits and press have descended upon Iowa for the final furious days of campaigning before the January 3 Iowa Caucuses. There is another group that has also turned out in droves: the professional lobbyists from Washington, DC.

Working the phone banks, hustling for votes on the streets, and working in key advisory positions in almost every campaign are representatives from the major lobbying firms. Like a desperate gambler furiously trying to cover every number while the roulette wheel spins, the lobbyists have fanned out to insure that they have connections the candidate who finally moves into the White House.

As the field narrows after Iowa and New Hampshire, those who have backed the losers will gravitate to the remaining viable campaigns. It is the ultimate game of “Survivor” – outwit, outlast, outplay – and the lobbyists have rigged the system to insure that no matter who wins, they win.

CASH COW. It is certainly easy to understand why Iowa goes to such great links to protect its “first in the nation status.” The Greater Des Moines Convention and Visitors Bureau estimates that approximately 5,000 people will flow into the city between now and the January 3 Caucuses as part of the massive media spectacle. Virtually all of the 1500 hotel rooms in the area are booked through the caucus date. The economic impact of the event for Des Moines alone is estimated at about $25 million. That doesn’t include the millions that campaigns have spent across the state in the weeks leading up to the political orgy.

By comparison, the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl in Nashville will have an estimated economic impact of about $21 million. Unfortunately, for Iowa their big bowl game bonanza only comes once every four years rather than annually.

PEER PRESSURE. Unlike primary ballots, which are cast in secrecy, caucus votes are a public affair. Friends and neighbors will know exactly who everybody supported.

Many of the political experts on the ground in Iowa think this process benefits Hillary Clinton, who has the political clout at the grassroots level necessary to apply the critical last minute peer pressure. Barack Obama and John Edwards have been working furiously to attract new participants to the caucuses who may not be as susceptible to such pressure, but political novices are also historically unreliable when it comes to actually turning out on caucus night. This sort of uncertainty is the thing that makes highly paid pollsters old before their time.

HUCKABEE IN THE TARGET SIGHTS. Interest groups that have been active in the fight for border security and enforcement of immigration laws are flocking into Iowa with the primary purpose of exposing Mike Huckabee’s record on illegal immigration. They also intend to make sure John McCain’s active leadership in supporting for amnesty for illegals does not escape the attention of Iowa Republicans.

ALIPAC (Americans for Legal Immigration PAC) has established phone banks with the goal of completing forty thousand phone calls before January 3. All of those calls will focus on the hot-button issue of illegal immigration. Huckabee has already seen some slippage in his Iowa poll numbers, but it is not clear which of his fellow Republican candidates will benefit most from a continued slide. Fred Thompson will certainly not be disappointed if the Hucka-boom busts before the caucus date. 

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