January 7, 2007 – Manchester, New Hampshire
PLAYOFF INTENSITY.  The stressful nature of campaigning is becoming more apparent in the final hours leading up to the New Hampshire primary vote. Republican and Democrat candidates alike seem a bit more testy and short-tempered than they were in Iowa a week ago. The compressed schedule of primaries that had campaigns shifting their focus immediately from Iowa to New Hampshire on Friday has something to do with it as late night flights and 20-hour days catch up to staffers and candidates. But it is also because reality has set in: many campaigns are now in the playoff style “one and done” mode. In other words, lose one more and the campaign is likely over. For good. In the NFL the playoffs mean more intensity and harder hits. The same is true in the presidential primary process.

CARNIVAL ATMOSPHERE. Downtown Manchester had a festive feel on Monday. Despite two to three feet of snow on the sidewalks and open spaces, the roads were mostly clear and the weather was a temperate 45 degrees. On some street corners dozens of Obama and Hillary supporters battled it out for prime signage spots, exhorting their supporters and potential voters to honk their horns. On other corners it was the Romney and McCain volunteers who were clamoring for visibility.

One candidate, Vermin Supreme, was parading up and down the street with a boot on his head and a megaphone at his mouth asking the curious onlookers to vote for him on Tuesday in the Republican Primary.  Dennis Kucinich’s volunteers were handing out pocket versions of the Constitution while urging prospective voters to “eat their spinach and vote for Kucinich!” Ron Paul was relying on air power with a plane flying overhead trailing a “Ron Paul for President” banner. Most Granite State residents have seen it all before, and will see it all again in four years.

DID ANYBODY CHECK? A John McCain rally in downtown Manchester late Monday afternoon drew a large, through generally less than enthusiastic, crowd. McCain’s crowds have been big, but lack the rock-star buzz that the Obama events are generating. One man in the McCain crowd was holding an “Azerbijanis for McCain” sign, and he certainly may have been from Azerbijan. But just before McCain took to the stage his volunteers distributed about a dozen “Irish for McCain” signs to anybody willing to take one. Most of them did not appear to be any more Irish than those sporting the “Kiss Me I’m Irish” buttons on St. Patrick’s Day.

MIDNIGHT VOTING. The first votes in the New Hampshire primary will be cast shortly after midnight in tiny Dixville Notch. After the twenty or so votes are cast, representing 100% turnout, the votes will be immediately counted.

But the winner of the Dixville Notch box should not be overly confident. The winner seldom carries the day in New Hampshire on either side of the aisle. In 2004 Wesley Clark won the Dixville Notch balloting, but John Kerry carried the day. And in 2000 Al Gore won the New Hampshire primary but lost Dixville Notch to Bill Bradley.

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