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Madonna, Ritchie get preliminary divorce decree
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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Microsoft lets Zune music subscribers keep tunes
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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Astronauts end spacewalk to repair gummed-up joint
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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Shuttle gives space station a mile-high boost
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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Germany drops attempt to ban Scientology
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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Bulgarian archaeologists unearth ancient chariot
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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Madonna, Ritchie granted preliminary divorce
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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Blast kills 8 mourners at Pakistani funeral
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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China 19,000 victims identified from May quake
Southern Ledger - November 21, 2008
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WILL THE POLITICAL DOMINOES FALL?
July 26, 2004 -
August 1, 2004
Many political analysts are concluding that Tennessee will not be competitive enough between Bush and Kery to place it amond the battleground states in the 2004 presidential race. Since Al Gore could not carry Tennessee in 2000 it is reasoned that a more liberal version from Massachusets will fare more poorly among the state's voters. And with no gubernatorial or senate elections to motivate voters, many politicians and pundits are beginning to look ahead to 2006 -- when Tennessee could see several epic battles depending on whether a few key dominoes fall.
The first domino being closely watched is Senator Bill Frist. When first elected in 1994 Frist indicated that he intended to only serve two terms. His second term ends in 2006. While his elevation to Majority Leader was unexpected, and could cause him to reconsider his two term pledge, it is likely that Senator Frist will choose to do what he said he would do and pass on seeking a third term.
In fact, a number of congressmen are clearly eyeing that Senate seat and are making overt moves to prepare for a statewide race in 2006 - among them Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. (D-9th), Congressman Zack Wamp (R-3rd), and Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R-7th). Former Congressmen Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary also seem to be positioning themselves for a potential Senate race in 2006.
But it is the second domino that will really determine whether Tennessee becomes another political maelstrom like 1994 -- when a Governor's race, a Senate race, and several open congressional seats made Tennessee a pundit's dream. The looming question, if indeed Senator Frist foregoes reelection to begin a 2008 Presidential bid, is whether Governor Phil Bredesen will seek reelection or pursue an open senate seat.
Bredesen is riding a high tide of popularity -- based in large part from governing as a fiscal conservative while avoiding contentious issues that would reveal his more liberal social conscience. By reining in and reforming TennCare and by controlling state spending without tax increases he has essentially governed as a Republican -- but with support from a Democrat legislature that would never have accepted the same proposals from a Republican.
But can Bredesen continue to surf above the rocky reef of social issues for another two years, and perhaps six, in order to pursue higher office at a later date? Bredesen is currently relying upon his Democrat allies in the legislature to block votes concerning gay marriage and abortion. These social issues have overwhelming support from both Democrats and Republicans in the legislature, and would pass easily if floor votes were held. Then, Bredesen could allow them to become law or veto them. Vetoes would immediately and negatively affect his popularity. Signing them would undermine his support among the Democrat base - statewide and nationally.
Wisely, Bredesen has been able to avoid the difficult position of making such choices -- so far. He may be able to dodge these issues for another two years, but can he avoid them for a second term AND also escape dealing with the income tax issue during a second term? Will Bredesen choose an open Senate seat while enjoying great popularity or a presumably easy run for reelection with tough issues looming? The likelihood that any subsequent Senate race would require defeating an incumbent will probably cause Bredesen to leap sooner rather than later.
If both big dominoes fall, look for Marsha Blackburn to make the race for Governor rather than the Senate, with Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker likely to jump in as well. Meanwhile, Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell would probably attempt to duplicate Bredesen?s move from Mayor to Governor. The dominoes would then continue to fall, producing open seats in the third, ninth, and seventh congressional districts. If the dominoes start to fall, 2004 may be seen as simply a warm-up for big time battles of 2006.
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