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IS A GORE SCENARIO EMERGING?
March 8, 2008 -
March 15, 2008
As the number of Democrat delegates available in the remaining state primaries and caucuses dwindles down, the likelihood that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will be able to secure the delegates needed to claim the nomination before the Democratic Convention in late August increases. Numerous factors complicate the issue, but none is more divisive than the controversy over potential delegates from Michigan and Florida. The fact that those two states also loom large as swing states in the November election exacerbates the problem for Democrats.
Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates when they broke Democratic Party rules and moved up their primary elections. Hillary, who was the only candidate on the ballot in Michigan, won the states in the elections they held despite national Party opposition. Both states are now considering “do over” primaries. However, the costs of holding two new primaries would almost certainly have to be covered by the Democrats, who would prefer to spend those millions of dollars defeating John McCain.
Without Michigan and Florida, Clinton and Obama need 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. With those states back in play, either candidate would need 2,209. At this point, Obama leads Clinton by approximately 1,367 to 1,225 in “pledged delegates”, which are based on votes they received at primaries and caucuses.
Because the Democrats will award the remaining delegates proportionally in each state rather than on a “winner take all” basis, it appears unlikely that Clinton can overtake Obama in the races remaining. But it is also unlikely Obama can reach the magic number of 2,025. So what happens if NOBODY wins the nomination during the primary/caucus process?
There are 800 Super Delegates who could decide the issue for one or the other, but unless they overwhelming flow to one candidate in the next few weeks the nominee will not be clear until the Democratic Convention convenes in Denver. Obama, with his lead, says the Super Delegates should follow the will of the voters. Clinton says they should vote their conscience. The rules are clear: The Super Delegates — Democratic Party officials and Democrats elected to either Congress or statewide offices — are absolutely free to support the candidate of their choice. They can do whatever they want.
With the prospects of a divisive and potentially chaotic Convention looming, some Democrats are starting to think – and talk -- about other options. Pushing Obama aside in favor of Hillary would cause serious problems among the African-American base that the Democrats rely upon. But despite Obama’s rhetorical skills, many Democrats remain concerned that his lack of credentials and experience make him vulnerable to McCain. If neither candidate can lock up the delegates to claim the nomination by the time the Democrats gather in late August, some party leaders are thinking privately that Al Gore might be the only one who could bring the party back together and carry it to victory in November.
As a former member of both the House and Senate along with his eight years as Vice President, his experience is unquestioned. His military service, including a brief stint in Viet Nam, balances against John McCain’s war hero credentials. With an Academy Award and a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on environmental issues, he can tout leadership on one of the critical issues of the day. Many Democrats would see a Gore-Obama ticket as a true “dream team,” one that can not only achieve victory in November but also get Obama the experience to be President in eight years. At this point, the Gore Scenario is only being talked about in hushed whispers. But as the bloodletting between Clinton and Obama continues, don’t be surprised to hear the talk increase in volume.
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CAN THE ER STRATEGY SAVE HILLARY? -
February 13, 2008 -
February 20, 2008
Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the presidency is on life support. After a rash of victories for Barack Obama, including a sweep of primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, the two candidates find themselves in a virtual dead heat in the delegate count. But all the momentum is on Barack’s side, and Hillary must now make a desperation play for the delegate-rich states of Ohio and Texas that are up for grabs on March 4. So, what cards does she have left to play?
When B... |
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ROOTS OF REPUBLICAN DISCONTENT. -
February 6, 2008 -
February 11, 2008
Republicans expecting to wake up the morning after Super Tuesday with their presidential field winnowed down awoke with a hangover of post-Fat Tuesday proportions. Instead of clarity Republicans have a more muddled situation than ever. With John McCain, Mitt Romney and John McCain splitting victories Tuesday all three may be unable to secure enough delegates to win the Republican nomination prior to the Convention in Minnesota.
Putative front-runner McCain, for example, must capture a... |
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BETTER LATE THAN NEVER. -
January 29, 2008 -
February 5, 2008
A combative President George W. Bush gave his final State of the Union Speech Monday night. After rolling over for excessive and wasteful spending fostered by Republican majorities in the House and Senate during his first six years in office he finally found his veto pen and promised to use it.
Bush called for a major crack-down on the pork barrel practices of Congress, saying he will veto any spending bill that does not cut in half the number and cost of congressional pet projects, kno... |
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LASTING IMPRESSIONS. -
January 20, 2008 -
January 27, 2008
When Fred Thompson first opened the door to a potential race for President last March he generated unbridled enthusiasm from many conservatives throughout the country. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was sitting on a significant lead in most national polls and the media was anointing him as the Republican nominee. Possessing a gruff, no-nonsense style, movie star celebrity and solid conservative credentials, Thompson was seen as perhaps the only one who could stop Rudy from winning.
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OVER?!?! IT HAS ONLY JUST STARTED! -
January 10, 2008 -
January 7, 2008
“Over'? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is!” – Bluto Blutarsky, “Animal House”
With the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary now in the rear-view mirror most of the political experts in the mainstream media have given the impression that the Republican and Democratic Primary races are in their final moments. Really? A quick glance at the meager number of delegates to the respective party conventions that have been awarded, and the huge number that remain ou... |
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