|
|
|
|
TENNESSEE LEGISLATIVE RACES WILL BE KEY BATTLEGROUND IN 2008.
April 7, 2008 -
April 14, 2008
Most politically savvy Tennesseans have been focused almost exclusively on the Presidential race over the past year. The continuing battle for the Democratic nomination, and the looming war for the White House between John McCain and whoever prevails in that fight, will draw the lion’s share of attention in the next few months. But, unless Tennessee somehow emerges as a battleground state in the presidential race, the real focal point for Tennessee politics will soon shift to the legislative races.
In the 99-member State House, Democrats currently have a 53-46 majority. If Republicans can win a net gain of four seats they would achieve a numerical majority in the House and be in position to elect the Speaker. While a numerical majority is no guarantee of actual control, the power shift would dramatically alter the way the House conducts business.
A net pick-up of four House seats in 2008 looks unlikely for Republicans, but they do appear to have a reasonable shot at narrowing the gap by two. The retirement of Representatives John Hood (D-Murfreesboro) and Randy Rinks (D-Savannah) have opened opportunities in two increasingly Republican districts that have long remained in Democrat hands largely due to personal appeal and the power of incumbency. Republicans will pull out all the stops to win both seats.
In the State Senate, Republicans and Democrats are split equally at 16 seats each and there is one Independent, Mike Williams of Maynardville. Williams was a Republican until he backed the reelection of former Democrat Lt. Governor John Wilder despite Republicans gaining a majority in the 2004 elections. Last year he ended up voting for Republican Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey – but not until after Democrat Senator Rosalind Kurita broke ranks to cast the deciding vote in Ramsey’s favor. Republicans are counting on 2008 being the year they secure a working majority in the Senate, and they have three seats in their target sights to achieve that goal.
The first seat is the one held by Williams who announce a few weeks ago that he would not seek to return. The district is decidedly Republican, and it should be a relatively easy task for Republicans to regain that seat, but Williams filed for reelection at the last minute as an Independent. As a result, voters will now choose between a Republican, a Democrat AND Williams. In a three-way split, anything is possible.
Two retirements have also buoyed Republican chances of expanding their razor-thin edge in the Senate. Wilder has left his seat open in a West Tennessee district that has become increasingly Republican over the years. Senator Tommy Kilby (D-Wartburg) also chose not to retire, leaving another district that leans Republican up for grabs. Republican success in all three races could lead to a 19-14 split in the Senate, a majority that would enable Lt. Governor Ramsey to strengthen his power base.
If Republicans pick up a net gain of just two seats in the House (for a 51-48 split) and secure a 19-14 majority in the Senate we could see a major political upheaval. Three Constitutional Officers -- the Treasurer, Comptroller and Secretary of State -- are elected by a combined majority of the House and Senate. The combined 65-67 Republican majority under those circumstances COULD give Republicans an historic opportunity to gain those offices as well as exercise majority control of the State Election Commission and the county election apparatus in all 95 counties!
Most American voters will be anxiously awaiting the results in the Presidential campaign on November 4. But astute Tennessee political observers will be closely watching the returns in a handful of State House and Senate races to see if a political shockwave occurs. With so much at stake, the normally second-tier legislative races could make the bloody infighting at the Presidential level look like a church picnic.
###
|
 |
 |
IS AL GORE STARTING TO MAKE HIS MOVE? -
March 30, 2008 -
April 6, 2008
In recent weeks, talk of the potential emergence of former Vice President Al Gore as a consensus candidate for the Democratic Party nomination for President has increased in volume. Newsweek columnist Eleanor Clift and Time columnist Joe Klein have both noted that Gore could provide the Democrats a winning exit strategy from the protracted Obama-Clinton primary battle, a fight that promises to get bloodier in the weeks ahead. One Democrat Congressman and Super Delegate, Tim Mahoney of Florida, h... |
 |
|
DOES SPITZER NEED "HOOKER CREDITS"? -
March 11, 2008 -
March 17, 2008
New York Governor Eliot Spitzer desperately needs a creative way out of his scandalous interlude with a high-priced prostitute in an exclusive Washington, D.C. hotel. News that he paid $4,000, plus train tickets, cab fare, mini bar and room service, travel time and hotel, for a Valentine’s Eve flurry of fun, have placed his political career (and presumably marriage) in jeopardy. Fortunately, he can follow the Al Gore “global warming” formula for cleansing his record.
Al Gore, in his mad... |
|
|
IS A GORE SCENARIO EMERGING? -
March 8, 2008 -
March 15, 2008
As the number of Democrat delegates available in the remaining state primaries and caucuses dwindles down, the likelihood that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will be able to secure the delegates needed to claim the nomination before the Democratic Convention in late August increases. Numerous factors complicate the issue, but none is more divisive than the controversy over potential delegates from Michigan and Florida. The fact that those two states also loom large as swing states in t... |
|
|
CAN THE ER STRATEGY SAVE HILLARY? -
February 13, 2008 -
February 20, 2008
Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the presidency is on life support. After a rash of victories for Barack Obama, including a sweep of primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, the two candidates find themselves in a virtual dead heat in the delegate count. But all the momentum is on Barack’s side, and Hillary must now make a desperation play for the delegate-rich states of Ohio and Texas that are up for grabs on March 4. So, what cards does she have left to play?
When B... |
|
|
ROOTS OF REPUBLICAN DISCONTENT. -
February 6, 2008 -
February 11, 2008
Republicans expecting to wake up the morning after Super Tuesday with their presidential field winnowed down awoke with a hangover of post-Fat Tuesday proportions. Instead of clarity Republicans have a more muddled situation than ever. With John McCain, Mitt Romney and John McCain splitting victories Tuesday all three may be unable to secure enough delegates to win the Republican nomination prior to the Convention in Minnesota.
Putative front-runner McCain, for example, must capture a... |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
| Keep up with Steve, join our G-Mail List to receive Gill Show updates and Steve's weekly column... |
|
|
|
 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
