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Home > Weekly Column

ELECTORAL MAP MAY GIVE GOP A GLIMMER OF HOPE IN THE FALL.

May 28, 2008 - June 4, 2008
2006 was a bad year for Republicans. Democrats took control of the U.S.
House and Senate as the tide turned strongly against President George W.
Bush and his party. 2008 has been shaping up as a year when GOP fortunes
could swing from bad to even worse. While some Republican leaders in
Washington have been claiming to see some light at the end of the
political tunnel three straight special election losses in Illinois,
Mississippi and Louisiana in House races that were considered “safe” shook
even the most optimistic Republicans. They are now recognizing the size
and scope of the potential disaster that may await them at the polls in
November.

Ironically, the saving grace for the GOP this year may be likely-Democratic Party Presidential nominee Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton’s last gasp effort to woo the remaining Democrat Super Delegates to her side is the argument that she has more political clout in the swing states that loom large in November than Obama. Three states in particular-- Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia -- are cited as evidence for her claim that she can win states that Democrats have traditionally won when capturing the White House, while Obama will lose all three by large
margins. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Florida are other states where her poll numbers have shown her with a greater likelihood of securing victory over John McCain.

Hillary may not convince the Super Delegates, but her Electoral Map argument does give a glimmer of hope to the GOP in terms of staunching the political blood flow in swing House and Senate races in those states. In Kentucky, for example, polls show it highly unlikely that Obama can overcome his recent rout at the hands of Hillary and swing the state into the Democrat column in November. A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows McCain leading Obama in the Bluegrass State by twenty five percentage points, 57% to 32%. That is great news for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) who is lagging behind his Democrat challenger, Bruce Lunsford, by a 49% to 44% margin. McConnell has served in the Senate since 1984, and may only survive this election if McCain wins Kentucky by a huge margin, which appears likely.

At least nine other Senate seats currently held by Republicans appear to be in jeopardy, including races in Minnesota, Mississippi, Texas, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia and Alaska. Democrats have fewer vulnerable seats up in this election cycle, so Republicans were already on the defensive before the year began. The McCain-Obama numbers in these states may well spell the difference in whether the Democrats pick up a few seats or a lot of seats.

The story on the House side is similar. Democrats have hoped to pick up some additional gains and expand their power base by picking up some seats in the South. But with McCain leading Obama by 60-32% in Alabama, 50-44% in Mississippi, and 57-32% in Kentucky (according to Rasmussen Reports polls released in the past week), Democrat prospects in House races in those states may fade in the coming months.

Republicans certainly don’t have anything to look forward to this November. But with Obama at the top of the Democratic Party ticket, they at least have a glimmer of hope that they will survive in enough states to simply lose a few more seats in the House and Senate rather than being completely swamped at the polls. Although absolute disaster still remains a distinct possibility.

###

Previous Column

WHAT TENNESSEE BUDGET CRISIS? - May 21, 2008 - May 28, 2008
When Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen first took office in 2003 he
inherited outgoing Governor Don Sundquist’s final budget. That year the
State of Tennessee spent a total of $20.7 billion dollars. In the past
several weeks the Governor and the Legislature have been grappling with a
so-called budget crisis that forced consideration of lay offs for 2,000
state employees, elimination of the planned expansion of the Governor’s
pet Pre-K program, and other “dire” cuts in serv...
ARE TERRORISTS RUNNING PHONE BANKS FOR OBAMA? - May 14, 2008 - May 21, 2008
The 2008 Presidential campaign has already seen a number of outlandish, and patently false, attacks. The idea that Islamic terrorists are picking a side in selection of an American President might seem to be yet another for the list…if it wasn’t true.

Ahmed Yousef, a top political adviser for terrorist group Hamas, said in an interview on WABC radio in New York a few weeks ago that the group supports Obama. “We like Mr. Obama. We hope he will (win) the election and I do believe he is li...
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Skyrocketing gasoline prices have finally attracted the attention of presidential candidates Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain. While their proposed solutions to prices surging past $3.60 a gallon at the pump range from the muddled to the misleading, a key point of friction between the candidates has been their support or opposition to a Federal gasoline tax “holiday.”

The federal gasoline tax collected at the pump is currently 18.4 cents a gallon. John McCain and Hillary C...
BARACK GETS A "DO-OVER" ON WRIGHT. - April 28, 2008 - May 4, 2008
Two wrongs don’t make a right, but for Barack Obama a second chance to deal with the radical rantings of his preacher may put his suddenly faltering campaign back on track.

When Reverend Jeremiah Wright’s vitriolic sermons gained national attention a month ago, Obama was reluctant to disavow him. He danced around what he knew, what he had heard and not heard from the pulpit ever the past twenty years at Trinity United Church of Christ, and whether he ever confronted Wright about his s...
DEMOCRATS ARE THE SOURCE OF OUR PAIN AT THE PUMP. - April 14, 2008 - April 21, 2008
“Democrats have a plan to lower gas prices…join Democrats who are working to lower gas prices now.” – Then-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), April 19, 2006.

The average price of gasoline hit $3.33 a gallon last week, a stunning $1.14 higher than it was when the Democrats took control of the U.S. House and Senate following a campaign built in large part on campaign promises to dramatically LOWER gasoline prices. The price of a barrel of oil was $56 the day Nancy Pelosi took over the S...
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SHOULD AMERICAN TAXPAYERS PAY THE TAB TO BAILOUT THE BIG THREE AUTOMAKERS?
NO WAY, NO HOW!!!
YES, THE INDUSTRY IS MUCH TOO IMPORTANT FOR US TO LET IT FAIL.
IT DEPENDS ON THE TERMS OF THE DEAL. WHAT INTEREST RATE WILL THEY PAY FOR THE CASH? WHAT DO WE GET AS COLLATERAL?
LET'S BAILOUT TWO OF THE THREE AND LET ONE FAIL. THEY SHOULD COMPETE TO BE IN THE TOP TWO BY CUTTING COSTS AND WAGES!
YES, BECAUSE WE CAN SAVE THEM JUST LIKE WE SAVED THE BANKS, INSURANCE COMPANIES, ETC.
NOT SURE.
 
 

Previous Articles:

WILL AMERICA COME TOGETHER AFTER THE ELECTION?
October 30, 2008 - November 4, 2008

WHY VOTERS ARE FURIOUS ABOUT THE BAILOUT PACKAGE.
October 5, 2008 - October 11, 2008

BOGUS POLL INTENDED TO BOOST OBAMA.
September 27, 2008 - October 4, 2008

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