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Home > Weekly Column

ECONOMICS 101 REVEALS THE TRUTH ABOUT HIGH GAS PRICES

June 5, 2008 - June 12, 2008
As gasoline prices nudge closer and closer to an average of $4 a gallon there is a lot of hue and cry in Washington about who to blame. The blame game makes for interesting political banter, but it is highly unlikely that drivers will see any relief at the pump coming from the posturing and posing bureaucrats and political hacks in D.C.

The Democrats blame Big Oil, despite the fact that Big Government actually takes a much larger share from the price of a gallon of gas in the form of local, state and federal taxes than the oil companies receive in profits. They also blame the War in Iraq, despite the fact that just a little over a year ago gas prices were half of what they are today and the War in Iraq was not only well underway at that time it was not going nearly as well as it is today.

Republicans tend to blame OPEC and the oil producing nations that have unilaterally raised the price of a barrel of oil to $130 and seem willing to go even higher. Their finger-pointing is actually closer to the mark, since “supply and demand” would indicate that by limiting supply in the face of rising demand the crude oil sellers are simply playing by the basic rules of economics. The fact that the U.S., led by a economics-challenged coalition of Republicans and Democrats, refuses to increase supply (and thereby decrease price) from huge oil resources in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR), offshore and in the form of oil shale simply gives them the unrestricted opportunity to restrict the supply.

But many of the Republicans overlook the other half of the supply and demand equation when apportioning blame for skyrocketing gasoline prices: demand. It is that half that bodes ill for any quick fix for consumers.

The harsh reality is that while the U.S. could, with requisite resolve, address the problems of limited supply by simply opening exploration and drilling in areas that are currently held off-limits, the rising international demand for oil – particularly from China and India - is something that U.S. policymakers can do nothing about. The demand for oil by China alone is growing faster than any amount of increased efficiency in automobile fuel efficiency or car-pooling can possibly counter balance. It is that demand, combined with our own self-imposed restrictions on supply, that is the real source of our pain at the pump.

China's consumption of oil reached a record high and rose an incredible 17% in the first quarter of 2008 alone, according to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association. A Chinese government think tank has estimated that China's oil consumption will increase by 62% over the next decade! The actual figure may be double that number. Yet, if Chinese consumption grows by just 62% China would be using at least 12 million barrels of oil a day by 2020 compared to the 20 million barrels currently consumed each day by the U.S.

As China continues to industrialize they are preparing for the demands of an increasingly consumer driven, and automobile driven, nation. In fact, they are in the process of building 42,000 miles of new interstate highways over the next twenty years. To put that in perspective, the entire United States has about 86,000 miles of interstate at the present time. India has plans to construct another 25,000 miles of expressways themselves. Presumably, cars fueled by gasoline are going to drive up and down all those thousands of miles of new highways.

That's a pretty good assumption since Chinese car sales rose nearly 18% during the first quarter of 20008 alone! The China Association of Auto Manufacturers reported sales of 2.46 million cars during the first four months of this year. China is the second largest car market in the world, and expects to put 10 million new cars on the road in 2008. New cars sold in the U.S. in 2008 are expected to be in the range of 14 to 15 million. With over a billion consumers, China will quickly surpass the U.S. as the number one car market in the world. Could that possible fuel even more demand for gasoline in the years to come?

The bottom line for U.S. consumers is that while restricted supplies of oil have caused the current price spike that is causing so much summer discontent, the long-term economic prognosis is even worse. As the increased demands for oil from China, India and other developing nations kick into high gear the only way to battle back against even higher prices will be alternative fuels AND full access to the oil reserves available to us. That isn’t a matter of blame; it is just a matter of basic economics.


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SHOULD AMERICAN TAXPAYERS PAY THE TAB TO BAILOUT THE BIG THREE AUTOMAKERS?
NO WAY, NO HOW!!!
YES, THE INDUSTRY IS MUCH TOO IMPORTANT FOR US TO LET IT FAIL.
IT DEPENDS ON THE TERMS OF THE DEAL. WHAT INTEREST RATE WILL THEY PAY FOR THE CASH? WHAT DO WE GET AS COLLATERAL?
LET'S BAILOUT TWO OF THE THREE AND LET ONE FAIL. THEY SHOULD COMPETE TO BE IN THE TOP TWO BY CUTTING COSTS AND WAGES!
YES, BECAUSE WE CAN SAVE THEM JUST LIKE WE SAVED THE BANKS, INSURANCE COMPANIES, ETC.
NOT SURE.
 
 

Previous Articles:

WILL AMERICA COME TOGETHER AFTER THE ELECTION?
October 30, 2008 - November 4, 2008

WHY VOTERS ARE FURIOUS ABOUT THE BAILOUT PACKAGE.
October 5, 2008 - October 11, 2008

BOGUS POLL INTENDED TO BOOST OBAMA.
September 27, 2008 - October 4, 2008

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